Internal estimates from the National Police suggest that up to three million people could obtain legal residency in Spain in just over a year. Note this detail: that figure includes the 1.2 million applicants for the extraordinary regularization program launched by the government, plus their family members who will apply for family reunification.
Sources at the General Commissariat for Immigration and Borders estimate that for every person who regularizes their status, at least three more will be added through family reunification. The impact, they warn, will overwhelm processing capacity as well as public services. In fact, the police have already complained that the government has removed them from oversight of the process and left management in the hands of the Ministry of Inclusion and Migration, which—they say—lacks sufficient trained personnel.
Police commanders also warn of the risk of document fraud. This is because criminal networks could exploit family reunification to smuggle in people who do not meet the requirements, by paying for fake certificates or posing as family members. With the massive increase in cases, they say, monitoring becomes more complicated.
An internal report from the General Police Commission, signed by Commissioner Alfredo García Miravete, had already cast doubt on the urgency of the measure and warned of a “pull factor” for illegal immigration, social tensions, and security problems. The document clearly states that the state’s capacity to absorb immigrants is inversely proportional to the number of regularizations and the projected timelines.
Concerns also extend to criminal background checks. According to the procedure, if an applicant claims to have requested a criminal record certificate in their home country but has not received it, they can proceed while the government attempts to obtain it. Officers fear that this loophole facilitates the entry of people with criminal records.
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